Assessing Risk and Response

How to assess the events unfolding, especially in Libya? The delay in global response will cause more uncertainty and turmoil in the markets. Hence, the recent jump in urgency by global powers on the situation is a very good thing.The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Wednesday approved a statement reached by the UN Security Council members that condemned the use of force against civilians in Libya. BAN KI-MOON, UN SECRETARY-GENERAL:"The situation is developing rapidly, toward a very dangerous situation. Therefore， we need to very carefully monitor the situation. I will continue to urge, in the strongest possible terms, first to stop...

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A Lovely Tribute To Van Gogh

Was cleaning up my old emails and came across this gem sent to me by a good friend. Its a lovely tribute to Van Gogh. Talk about leaving a mark or an enduring legacy. Why are great artists often quirky and misunderstood???Vincent van Gogh, whose obsessive devotion to his art engulfs, consumes, and finally destroys him. However, evidence now shows that he probably killed himself because he went mad from lead poisioning. Then, artists used to lick their brushes to wet them and the paints were full of lead..... they would become addicted to the sweet taste of the lead and their body would crave it. Vincent literally began to eat paint. To many...

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A Torrid Time, And Something New To Stomach

Yesterday's market in Malaysian stocks was something to behold. Can you feel it, I certainly can, it feels like panic selling, it feels like sell first ask questions later, it feels like "I give up" kinda selling. Call it what you like, we needed to see that, as brutal as that may sound. I see that as a peak selling. You may ask if the selling can still continue after a so called "peak selling".Well, looking at the underlying causes, this wave of peak selling seems pretty solid. Despite how it may look, there were sufficient nibblers on the way down to assure me that there are many who are willing to buy on grave dips like yesterday. Its peak...

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Marking Time

Well, I am sure many readers would be a bit disappointed that I haven't been writing about the markets for sometime. I mean, what is there to write home about. When things happen that overwhelms the sentiment of the markets, and its beyond your control or predictive powers, either you cut your holdings or wait. I think both are OK strategies. No point asking you to buy more now, as if we always have stacks of available credit lines to do that. The "revolution has gone a bit viral" as other nations think that they can emulate what happened in Egypt in their own countries. Not many will succeed but there will be an extended period of turmoil and uncertainty.But there is some light from these developments, I think all governments that have been treating their citizens with disdain, contempt,...

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Come Hear Roger Wang Live, Its Free!!!

Its tomorrow night at Loud + Clear, a snazzy new CD shop that is making waves. Even for their opening, they managed to get some live artistes to perform at their place. Two nights ago, it was Zyan and Winnie Ho of 2V1G. Tomorrow it will be Roger Wang, arguably Malaysia's finest guitarist, next to Paul Ponnudurai. See you there. Roger Wang, the Sabahan finger-style guitarist, celebrated his 10th year in the music industry in 2010. Already a famous musician in his own right, his recent achievements helped to catapult him to greater heights. Thanks to Jacky Cheung, the Cantopop "Heavenly King" who took his composition "Love Scale" and used...

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The Final Bend, The Solianos' Pusaka

Finally, the recordings have been completed. We now get a foretaste of theeir work in the player embedded. The final version after they have been mixed in the US will sound even better - its now being mixed by Doug Sax and the pressings will be commercially available sometime in March.Its a wonderful collaboration effort, Malaysian Filipinos having been in this country for a few generations making an album with a Malaysian Chinese producer whose family have also been here for a few generations, singing Malay classics. The inimitable Mahadzir Lokman, a family friend of The Solianos, lends a powerful touch to narrate the intros to a few songs....

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The Best In Us, Teohlogy and Junior Masterchef

Finally laid my hands on Patrick's book. Somehow things seem more official in a book than just an article in the papers, or a blog for that matters. Maybe one day some articles in my blog can be in a book as well, lol, and if that happens, I will call it "How To Lose Your Money Wisely".Patrick and I go a long way back, though he would probably have zero recollection. I was the Vice President of my Interact Club then (which was a big deal for me as I was in Form 5 only and usually only Lower/Upper Sixers get the Vice President and President positions) and the Interact Club was "the" club to be in if you are from Ipoh. We had the best fund raisers...

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When All Else Fail

Since most analysts and market experts have gotten the first couple of weeks after CNY wrong, we have little choice left but to refer to the master, the unerringly correct yearly market predictor by the CLSA team. This has been featured in some publications and numerous blogs before. Click for larger image.The first reaction would be "damn, if only I followed the chart properly", it had February as a deliberate down month, so far so good. Too late to do anything much now, wait for market to consolidate, at least April looks decent. From the chart we should sell everythiung by end of April, proving that the old adage "sell in May" looks...

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Commentary About Hot Stocks

MPHB - Finally came out with a plan to buyout the remaining 49% from the funds which took Magnum private in the first place. If MPHB did nothing and just allow the refloatation of Magnum, that would have been a classic "wtf were you guys doing in the first place". If you allow the immediate floatation, MPHB will only gain from a revaluation of its 51% stake as it cannot sell that down, and chances are MPHB minority shareholders will just be standing by the sidelines watching Magnum being relisted. That would have been very bad PR and corporate strategy as the only real gainers would have been the 49% private equity funds, as they can sell at...

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What's The Fuss About Mubarak?

Not all of us are widely read about international affairs. We see something erupting, a crisis, a massive chaos of people protesting, but why?AFP: US President Barack Obama said Friday the people of Egypt had spoken after history moved at a "blinding pace," and called on the now-ruling military to ensure a transition towards "genuine democracy". Obama gave a statement soon after it emerged from a euphoric Cairo that President Hosni Mubarak, a 30-year US ally who America subtly helped push towards the exit, had resigned after days of raging street protests. "The people of Egypt have spoken - their voices have been heard and Egypt will never be the same," Obama said. "Egyptians have made it clear that nothing less than genuine democracy will carry...

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UBS Sees A Trickle Not A Torrent

A trickle, not a torrentYear-to-date equity flows modestly negative; no ‘capital flight’. Data from various sources suggests that inflows to Asia have slowed, but we are by no means seeing ‘capital flight’ from the region. Outflows over the past 4 weeks look to be small and nothing out of the ordinary versus history in Asia ex Japan. Outflow from Asia/EM funding the DM outperformance?A more important question is whether the outflow could accelerate if developedmarkets (DM) continue to outperform. Looking at the data since 1990, it is rarethat Asia would see outflow whilst DM see inflows except during financial crisesand global bear markets....

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Credit Suisse Sees Buy Signal Soon

● MXASJ down almost 7% from high, time to buy? With MXASJ (MSCI Asia ex. Japan) down 7% from its high of 580 to 540 currently, a key question is whether it is time to buy. Our Asian 6 factor valuation indicator has moved from 1% overvalued in December 2010 to around 6% undervalued. So, we are not yet at our “Buy” signal. The next factor we look at is whether there has been foreign investor capitulation. Significantly, yesterday alone was associated with US$1.68 bn of net foreign selling, and so far in February we have seen net foreign selling of US$2.88 bn in Emerging Asia ex. China, ex. Malaysia. ● Average net foreign selling in prior non-recession...

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Finally A Decent CD Shop

I don't know about you, but I hate shopping for CDs in most places in town. We only get those highly commercialised releases, where's the "real music" section? Now, selling CDs is a dying business unless you can carve a niche for genuine music lovers, who will pay for the real thing and not just download a copy and then make ten copies for friends.If you assess the artistes that Loud n Clear are bringing in, you would appreciate their effort and music knowledge and wide range in tastes. The shop is open now, so go and browse, talk to the owners, tell them some artistes you like, they will be able to introduce similar ones that you have not heard...

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Reasons & Rhymes

So what caused yesterday's slump in most markets? I love it when everyone is asking the same question, and nobody seems to have answer. Its like debating how we know if there is a God for sure. The usual market weakness reasons would not be sufficient to explain the shareper than usual daily losses.Bloomberg has this to say: "Asian stocks fell, dragging a benchmark regional index lower for a third day this week, on concern U.S. unemployment and efforts by emerging countries to tame inflation will hamper a global economic recovery."Hmmm, ok Bloomberg, you need to do better than that.The FBM KLCI fell 2.09% or 32.08 points to 1,503.99, the steepest...

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When Hu Visits The US

definition of irony ...the fund manager ...the funniest one of all, a brilliant retake of Abbott & Costello's Who's On First ....

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