Commentary On Hot Stocks

Mind you, this is not a commentary on stock you should be buying or selling on fundamentals on a 6-12 month view. This is just a passing commentary on certain hot stocks for trading purposes. We all know we would not be the earliest to discover a breakout stock, but price movements analysis coupled with some basic fundamentals research would yield much trading information.

The key is coming to the conclusion whether there is sufficient further upside, or limited upside for trading purposes.

Kuchai Developments - No need to bore you with details, the key is whether there will be a G.O. or not. Without a G.O., you will not be able to realise much of the NTA. Assuming the NTA is RM2.36 - if you assume there is no syndicate play here, then the controlling shareholders are collecting. The way the share price is holding above RM1.50 may indicate much of the shares collected have not come back to the market. I would have triggered a good trade below RM1.30 as the upside was substantial. At RM1.60, the upside is still there but we don't really know what is actually going to happen. If you must trade from here, trade small.

Maju Perak - This is a classic strong trading buy. A sleepy stock forever but with enormous NTA at RM1.36, mostly land kept for development all over Perak. They have restructured the company over the past few months and have started a joint venture to go into residential development. The sharp jump in volume and price indicates either a syndicate play just starting or something more substantial. Do you dare to initiate a syndicate play with a vehicle owned by Syarikat Perbadanan Perak??? They own over 65% of the company and there's about only 130m shares. I would tend to favour the opinion that something substantial is in the works, which would make this a pretty strong trade as things seem to have just started.

K One - There was a good jump in volume in the day leading to the announcement of their spectacular quarterly results. Surprisingly, the anticipated sell on news did not happen. I like the way the stock price still held up. There are sources that say that there will be more significant corporate developments in the coming days. Good trade rating.

YTLe - This one is hard to value. Looks like they will get a chunk of the 'pie'. The higher it goes, the riskier the trade. Compared to the cash they hold, this company is getting seriously in the over exuberant category above RM1.60.

SP Setia - When I put this as my best pick for a 6 month hold, I am sure most would have gone into the warrants. That would have chalked up a return of more than 100% in less than 2 months. If you wish to hold or buy more, indications are still good for further upside. Sometimes good memory will get you to keep 100% gain but lose out on 200% gain. Despite the recent surge, indicators still good for a trade or hold.

Kinsteel - Looks good if you can get around RM1.00. It looks more like a 2-3 week hold trade rather than a contra type trade.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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How Do You View Kuchai Developments

Look at the chart. If you peruse the financial results, no one would bother with the company. Companies like Kuchai should not be listed anymore as its an asset holdings company. The good thing is bulk of the assets are now valued on the upside of their respective cycle. It might be a good time to finally cash out. Not that the owners need the money, the family is one of the richest in Singapore anyway. But its time to streamline their holdings.

To note, the company owns a shophouse at Emerald Hill Road, Singapore. In addition, KUCHAI has a 26% equity stake Sg. Bagan.

Sg. Bagan owns and cultivates approximately 2,600 acres of oil palm plantation in the District of Machang, Kelantan. Sg. Bagan is also engaged in the long term portfolio investment in securities.

Funnily enough, for a sleepy counter like Kuchai this would be the second time I am writing about the stock. Back in March I wrote on a few companies that presents itself as a 'value trap', lol. Good to read again:

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Kuchai Development

Its basically a holding company. Its got a substantial stake of 26% in palm oil Sg Bagan and a highly attractive 3m shares of Great Eastern (traded now btw S$15-16). All in the total net asset value for Kuchai Development is around RM260m. It has 120.7m shares (50 sen), which makes for a NAV of RM2.15. Guess what's the share price??? Its just 80 sen. How to go wrong?

Technically you have to outlive the owners or wait till they finally decide to do something with their shares. When looking at a value company, the first thing to check is the shareholdings level. For Kuchai:
Kluang Rubber 41.9%
Sg Bagan 9.38%
Lee Foundation 4.18%
Kota Trading 1.77%

The top 3 are basically the same group of people and they made doubly sure they have more than 50% as that will stop anyone thinking of raiding the company. So if someone comes along and collect shares and then make a G.O. at RM1.60, he/she will not succeed as long as the controlling shareholders do not sell. They will probably sell if someone comes along and offer a substantive premium to NAV, say RM2.60-2.80 or thereabouts. The value is in the NAV and then the listing vehicle as a value add.



Once the owner controls more than 50%, there's very little you can do. If you can locate a value company and there is ample free float, plus the controlling shreholder holds less than 40%, then I bet you that many vultures will be cirlcling to take over the company, thus narrowing the gap between NAV and the share price.

It might be OK to hold on forever if the company pays a decent dividend, but in Kuchai's case it paid 0.8 sen in 2008 and 0.45 sen in 2009. If you take the share price of 80 sen, that works out to be a paltry dividend yield of 1% and 0.56%. Really no incentive to own this stock.

I really think that there is a strong case for the SC to come down hard on Kuchai because it does not resemble a normal company with on-going businesses. Its strictly a holding company. It does NOT allow shareholders to participate in the growth of the company, it just holds the stakes forever. It does NOTHING to extract value from their inherent value. Some may say so is Berkshire Hathaway - in Buffett's case, he actively manages his positions, positions will be sold once they reach above fair value and vice versa. Kuchai's position makes a mockery of being a listed counter - anyone in their right mind would be 100x better off to invest directly into Great Eastern or Sg Bagan - there is absolutely no value to its existence.
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After my posting 6 months back, this might be the trigger for something big. Kuchai does not really move into speculative or syndicate plays. One day could be an aberration but 3 or 4 continuous days would mean something else. If I was the controlling shareholder, and I want to streamline my holdings. I will be doing a General Offer. RM285m / 120m ~ RM2.37 or thereabouts.



Hence a G.O. would have to be close to the NAV. Your guess is as good as mine, RM1.80 to RM2.10 could be reasonable. I find it hard to think of any other reason for the price movements other than a G.O. Other possibilities could be selling their 26% in Sg. Bagan, which is close to realising the full value of the company anyway.

This is not a recommendation in any way, just trying to make sense of the stock movements. Kuchai is helmed by very rich people, no syndicate play is likely or necessary. If I were to make a wild and outrageous guess ... how about ... using Kuchai as the backdoor listing vehicle for Great Eastern Malaysia???!!! Just an absolutely wild guess, but they have the "same shareholders" really!

Why then the assiduous collection? Answer that, you could have a profitable trade here.

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Equity Strategy 2H 2010 & Asset Class Returns As At end-June 2010

Just passed the halfway mark. REITs finally took a hit, is this the beginning of the double dip. Do I believe in the double dip, yes of course. Only that the dip will be more restrained, not a significant or prolonged dip. Things move in cycles and like pendulums. Share prices are the same, they will sing to one side, over swing a bit and the correct. This is because the data are but collection of human behaviour, and masses will never react perfectly. They will chase a share price that is running until it overshoots, and attract sellers to come in. When the balance shifts to the other side, you will see it overshooting on the downside again.

June was another rough month for risky assets, although the losses were considerably deeper with U.S. stocks from a dollar-based return perspective. REITs also took a hit: for the first time since the opening months of 2009, real estate securities dropped by more than 5% for the second month running.

Bonds held up well in June. This is probably due to the threat of deflation taking a toll on investor sentiment, the safety of fixed-income (even at unusually low yields) attracted capital flows last month like moths to a flame.

US equity took the hardest hit in June. Was this an adjustment to the European crisis and the Euro crisis? Probably. Was it trying to discount a flattening of recovery, probably. Was it due to funds closing their books and squaring off positions and waiting for the right levels to reloan in 2H, absolutely.

But what we all should be focusing at is the YTD figures. Commodities are down by nearly 10% and foreign developed stocks have retreated by more than 13% in dollar terms—the steepest decline for the major asset classes on a year-to-date basis through June’s close. There has been some flight to reserve currency assets, but US equity did follow suit, much of its YTD losses came in the month of June alone.

So we are giving back all gains this year and more. Is this a risk aversion period? I think the sell in May rang true and it coincided with the Greek, Hungarian and Portuguese malaise, followed by the weakening Euro, which threatened demand for exports from the rest of the world.

China had to do a lot of braking in its domestic economy and the Shanghai index reflected that for the past 3 months. Now they have to contend with pressures to have a stronger yuan as well.

Some may cite the fact that many governments have piled on too much debt and that will come back to haunt us. Well yes, but not so soon. No one is going to put a gun to the US and ask them to lower their debts within the next couple of years. While the same seems to be happening in Europe, it is mainly a sovereign issue not a corporate issue.

We are actually still in the midst of a newly created liquidity bubble. Thanks to Bernanke and many of the other governments, we have printed and poured too much liquidity into the global financial system. We are also locked in with globally benign interest rates. Tell me what do the above ingredients make?

But why the recent pullback. Well, even when you are driving a Porsche, you are limited to how far and fast you can go if there is a traffic jam. Be sure, we have a highly powered underlying liquidity revving its engines. We just need the traffic to clear up a bit: Euro steadying a bit; unemployment growth flattening out but not down trending aggressively; corporates continuing to put out good quarterlies; etc.

I have changed my views on the Euro, I think it will stablise here 1.25-1.30 and not go any closer to 1.00 to the USD. Herein lies the key. The Euro crisis may have blighted our views too much. Look closer, most of Europe's top companies are benefiting strongly overall. We missed the picture that this is more a sovereign thing. Many of the companies are already getting an 18%-20% boost in receipts (added competitiveness) thanks to the weaker Euro - we all know that that is more than double the net margins of most companies.



European industrial production actually rose 0.8% in April much better than the average forecast of 0.5%. One of the better leading indicators of economic activity is cargo carriers, Fedex's recently reported that Europe is seeing solid activity, very much different from the picture the media would have us believe.

China may be the weak link in 2H. In addition to the yuan, the high interest rates, the yet to subside property bubble, we now have a snowballing labour issue. The Honda-Foxconn developments should ensure a cascading and rippling effect on all labour wage demands across China, watch it balloon in the coming weeks.

I think US equity and emerging markets equity will be quite positive for most of 2H2010. I see the Dow testing 11,500 and the FBMKLCI testing 1,450 before the year is over.

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