The Index, Market Tones, Trading Zones

The Malaysian markets last week would be a good subject matter for case study among all business students. Why is that when the index was above 1,350 and headed higher, that the general undertone of the markets was suspiciously muted.



Then the US markets had their biggest fall in months, and the local bourse fell in sympathy in the opening minutes but soon switched screens and started what I would term as the best "trading zone" this year.

Do all syndicates or big players act in concert? I don't know man, but it seems that there is a switch which most of them follow - as to who gets to push the switch, I don't want to guess too much.

The bulk of private investors have been waiting for this kind of "trading zone" - its a period where speculative and stocks with "stories or earnings upgrade" will move, and find good follow through as well. Usually this will last at least 2-4 weeks.



We cannot be looking at the main index to gauge sentiment as the index is too heavily weighted to big caps. The underlying tone of the markets has been set and I have mentioned before that the time is ripe for a run.

If you look at the privatisation of Measat and Tanjong, that could very well trigger a downtrend for the market but it didn't. Then we have the yet unresolved Kenmark situation which was followed by the bitter after-taste Mudajaya debacle - which could have also derailed investors' confidence. But no, the market was marking time.



When something is supposed to go down but does not, it usually will be up. You can infer the same from the above events.

The same is true, if something that is supposed to go up but doesn't, it will go down - these things never stay at parity. Important rule of thumb here. Remember the many times your friends or brokers telling you this stock or that stock will go up because of: new projects / earnings upgrade / owner playing the stock up / etc... if they do not go up, they usually will not stay still ... they will go down.

Enjoy people...

Posted in: chen qiao en,market analysis,market direction