Showing posts with label Maki Goto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maki Goto. Show all posts

Monday, August 23, 2010

Sell Side & Buy Side Research


I received the following article from Singapore on sell side and buy side analysts. At the end I have added a posting on the same topic.

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Fund managers value honest and independent analyst reports that offer a different viewpoint. But they feel that such reports are few and far between.
Of course, underscoring that assessment is what they perceive to be a potential conflict of interest between sell-side research and stockbroking arms housed within a brokerage firm.



One fund manager who declined to be named says that 'sell' calls are as important to him as 'buy' calls. But he feels that very often, some brokers tend to issue only 'buy' calls and no 'sell' calls.

'I still see many reports which are done for marketing purposes. That is, they are written to get new businesses rather than present the true picture of the targeted companies,' he adds. 'There is still a lack of real independent research out there.'
The fund manager, who is with an Australian private equity firm, says that he values regular, continual coverage on stocks rather than 'ad-hoc' coverage.


One criticism about the industry has been a lack of research continuity for underperforming stocks where 'sell' calls are warranted, as it is the 'buy' calls that drive equity team sales at these brokerages.

A case in point is OSIM International, which was a magnet for analysts in its early years of sterling growth. But after it started reporting losses following its acquisition of US retailer Brookstone in 2005, analysts stopped covering the stock. Coverage of the stock has returned recently after OSIM staged a turnaround in earnings by writing off its Brookstone investment last year.



'These days, the large financial institutions have underwriting, proprietary trading and stock-broking businesses. Which is a larger profit centre?' asks Wong Kok Hoi, chairman and chief investment officer of APS Asset Management. 'They say they have China walls but frankly I am not sure how thick the walls are.'

But on balance, the unwillingness of users to pay for the research also has a part to play for the quality of sell-side research, Mr Wong adds. On a positive note, he believes that sell-side research has improved over the years.

Fund managers typically have large in-house research teams to meet specific research needs. The difference between sell-side research and buy-side research is who pays for them.

Sell-side research is often funded by the stockbroking business and its recommendations are directed across the general mass of the brokerage clients.
Buy-side research is paid for by the funds' clients, and recommendations are based on how well the investment meets the fund's investment strategy and portfolio.

Fund managers say they generally use sell-side research to gain new insights or investment ideas, obtain a third-party view, or to know more about new companies.

Hugh Young, managing director of Aberdeen Asset Management Asia, says he typically seeks out sell-side research for specific industry expertise that Aberdeen does not possess in-house. But he laments that there has been much rehash in research reports on what company management says.

'It's useful for people who don't have time to read the full management report. We do a lot of research in-house, so we can only blame ourselves when we get things wrong.'

Since short-term estimates or assumptions of the analysts are quickly priced into the market before fund managers could act on them profitably, fund managers often look out for the long-term views of the analysts.




'As long-term investors, we naturally would like to know the intrinsic value of a company,' Mr Wong says. 'Hence, we appreciate analysts' work on the long-term value of a company which, among others, must at least include long-term growth prospects of the industry and the company business franchise, including its durability.

'We also like to know what they think of the integrity and competence of management and appreciate those who can help flesh out the quirks among the fine print in the annual accounts,' he adds.

'We have always found it productive to speak with analysts who know management well, truly understand the business franchise's strengths and limitations, the company's competitors, etc.'



Sunday, August 09, 2009

Buy Side Vs Sell Side Analysts

For those not in the industry, the terminologies may be confusing. Buy side analysts refer to the analysts working within a fund management firm, generating reports, analysis and recommendation for their own portfolio managers or strategy sessions. Sell side analysts are those at brokerages trying to generate ideas on buys and sells to clients.



An example of a buy side analysts team (and its a big team) locally would be the analysts at Public Mutual. These recommendations by buy side analysts, made exclusively for the benefit of the fund that pays for them, are not available to anyone outside the fund. If a fund employs a good analyst, it does not want competing funds to have access to the same advice. A buy-side analyst's success or talent is gauged by the number of profitable recommendations he or she makes to the fund. In most cases, top buy side analysts end up as their in-house fund managers. This is usually why many of the traditional fund mangers positions are not advertised - they have instituted a hoard of analysts clamoring for those positions.


The buy-side differs from the sell-side in three main ways: they follow more stocks (30-40), they write very brief reports (generally one or two pages), and their research is only distributed to the fund's managers.

Buy-side analysts can cover more stocks than sell-side analysts because they have access to all the sell-side research. They also have the opportunity to attend industry conferences, hosted by sell-side firms. During these conferences, the managements of several companies in a sector present why they are a better investment. After gathering this information, buy-side analysts summarize their case in a brief report that also contains an earnings forecast. These reports are only distributed to the fund's managers.


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The sell-side provides research and conferences to the buy-side in the hope that the buy-side will let them execute the large trades that the funds make when they act on the recommendation provided by the sell-side. Having access to the sell-side's primary research and the ability to attend industry conferences allows the buy-side analyst to follow many more stocks than a sell-side analyst. To compensate the firm for this information, the funds will buy and sell stocks with the brokerage firms that provide the best information.

You would think that a buy side analyst recommendation would perform better than a sell side because the former only has to please one client, while the latter may be "forced" to generate new ideas or do flip-flops in order to generate trades / commissions. The buy side is paid by the fund management house itself, hence just one client to please or piss off. The sell side is paid by the brokers, which means you can be praised or pilloried or pile-driven by many clients of the firm.

In a 2008 study by Boris Groysberg, Paul Healy and Craig Chapman for the CFA Institute in the Financial Analysts Journal Vol. 64, they looked at buy-side and sell-side earnings forecasts from 1997-2004. The conclusion was that buy-side analysts made more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. The performance differences appear to be partially explained by the buy-side firm's greater retention of poorly performing analysts and by differences in the performance benchmarks used to evaluate buy-side and sell-side analysts.

In a new study by professors from Harvard Business School and the University of North Carolina, they found that shares chosen by sell-side analysts performed more than 3x better than those selected by the buy-side analysts (1997-2004 as well). The findings are a surprise because buy-side forecasters have none of the conflicts with investment banking units like the sell-side.

A probable explanation is that sell-side research is published while buy-side is not. The fact that it circulates spurs competition, comparisons, scrutiny, and maybe even get recognised when "best of awards" come around. It is also fair to assume that buy-side analysts have a much much less of a chance to be fired, retrenched or replaced than sell-side, and for that reason as well sell-side analysts make much more money.

The results were culled from over 12,000 analysts at brokerages and 340 buy-side institutions. Buy-side "buy calls" generate an annual market adjusted return of 2.3% while sell-siders generate an 8.1% return average. This would really beg the question why fund management firms would continue to fund these buy-side research? One main benefit is to cover those stocks that generally do not appear on the radar of the sell-side analysts. Sell-siders can only reasonably cover big stocks as those are the ones that generate the commissions. Buy-side may need to discover more of the smaller companies.

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In my view, the sell-side analysts will always know the companies and the senior management of the companies covered better than the buy-side analysts. Now that there is a stricter and hardier Chinese wall between research / sales / investment banking, it will make sell-side research have a bit more integrity and reliability.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Passing Commentary On Biz Issues


SC & Mudajaya - Is there a better way to do this? The volatility in the share price is so disturbing. SC had to act after getting "the letter". Here, all listed company owners and CEOs would be shuddering, will SC act on any kind of poison letters? It is highly discretionary, if its not, everyone should get the set of rules out in the open.



If I was an unscrupulous trader or someone who wanted to get into a company on the cheap, this might be an excellent way. Say, I like to own a substantial stake cheaply in a good company, e.g. Evergreen or QL Resources ... and I just wrote the poison letter with minimal truth in it. Of course that will make me liable if I was caught. If I wasn't, I could very well collect a substantial amount of shares 30%-40% cheaper and at good volume as well.

Just the fact that SC has said that they are looking into allegations would kill the stock, because people will guess. Is there a better way? How do we justify between claims that are "reasonably truthful" or "reasonably sneaky"? We are already punishing the stock before the jury is back with a verdict. It cannot go higher, it can only go down.

Can we suspend the stock until the investigation is over? That is plausible, but is that OK for a stock to be suspended for an extended period of time? If it takes 2-3 weeks to come back with a finding, maybe that is the lesser evil.



We still do not know what the final outcome will be, but the entire episode gives a lot of room for excessive volatility and possibly even insider trading, by oh so many parties, be it good news, no news, bad news, etc... how do we guard against it?

I am not saying anyone is at fault but we should really try and get to do this in a "better way", I am sure there is a better way, even if it means suspending the stock indefinitely as the alternative is totally unappetizing and discriminatory to genuine investors.


We just cannot let the "bad guys" win at this.


Sime Darby - Sime said on Friday, Aug 6 that it would announce its fourth quarter results on Aug 26. It added that until then, it could not comment on the results of the group "except that we expect the company to report a profit for the year ended June 30, 2010 based on its best estimates".

Just because the rumours has it that you might be losing money, and in the billions ... still does not give the company the right to say that you will report a profit, or am I the only one who thinks that its not OK?



Thursday, May 20, 2010

Best Country To Be Unemployed In




European governments offer the highest percentage of combined unemployment pay and state benefits, while the U.S. provides the least generous compensation to dismissed workers. The percentages cited are of their normal monthly pay packets.

Norway

* Unemployment rate: 3.3%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 72%

Benefit after 12 months: 72%

Spain

* Unemployment rate: 19%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 69%

Benefit after 12 months: 65%

France

* Unemployment rate: 10.1%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 67%

Benefit after 12 months: 64%

Germany

* Unemployment rate: 7.5%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 64%

Benefit after 12 months: 48%

Canada

* Unemployment rate: 8.2%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 52%

Benefit after 12 months: 14%

Goto Maki by Wanderlei Jr..

Turkey

* Unemployment rate: 14.5%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 46%

Benefit after 12 months: 0

Japan

* Unemployment rate: 4.9%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 45%

Benefit after 12 months: 3%

South Korea

* Unemployment rate: 4.4%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 31%

Benefit after 12 months: 0

U.K.

* Unemployment rate: 8%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 28%

Benefit after 12 months: 28%

U.S.

* Unemployment rate: 9.7%

** Unemployment benefit in first year: 28%

Benefit after 12 months: 0


* February 2010

** Percent of annual income

Data: Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, U.K. Office of National Statistics, Turkey's Statistical Board

Maki-Goto by hhossny.

I think Spain and France are fantastic places to be unemployed, don't you think so? I have written before that Asian countries seem to have an unhealthy abhorrence towards unemployment benefits. We tend to have very few safety nets, and when an economy plunges into a deep recession, maybe at no fault to the general working public, many have no safety nets to fall on. We get ourselves into perilous situations.

What I am asking for is not a fully funded government unemployment scheme, but rather an unemployment insurance scheme, which will cost the government next to nothing if done properly. For the benefit of those who missed out, here is a repost of my article:

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Malaysia Needs Unemployment Insurance


Our government has been postponing the need for unemployment insurance for too long. We do not have sufficient safety nets underpinning our country's social and economic systems. The concern has always been the cost side. The other argument is the incentive not to work. There is a bigger danger in having unemployment insurance - companies may be more "willing" to bite the bullet to lay off workers in such an environment.

We already have too many archaic rules pervading the economic life of Malaysians. Its quite debilitating really. We have no unemployment insurance, and every 7-10 years we will have a massive recession and many might not be able to honour their commitments owing to forces greater than them.

We can take the pedestal and say they deserve it for not being able to manage their financial affairs properly, but seriously, even drug addicts and prisoners get a second chance to rebuild their lives. I am not here to justify reckless behaviour, but to ask that the laws be fairer to the normal person. When you unfairly penalises a person, it does not just affect the person alone, in Malaysia's culture, people also have to take care of their parents and extended families. Hence the social impact is substantial.


I am not an insurance guy, but I think we can come up with a semi government body to do this, or even be part of EPF to do this. EPF can do this role well as it already has the database for checks and balances.

How about all employees contribute 1.5% to this Fund and the employer puts in another matching 1.5% of salary. Only employees who have contributed more than 1 year will be able to enjoy the benefits. If you are laid off, you will get 3 months full pay and 5 months of half pay of your last salary. These will be paid like normal salaries on a monthly basis, thus covering most expenses for at least 8 months. This will be in additional to the normal notice pay and severance pay.
Once you have taken the unemployment benefits, you will need to be working for at least another year before being qualified to obtain the benefits again.

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Like I said I am no actuary, but all things being equal, the monthly 3% to the fund basically means 1 person is covered for every 33 employees. All things being equal again, in a downturn the Fund should be more than able to carry a 300 basis point jump in unemployment (e.g. if unemployment rate jumps from 3.5% to 6.5%, technically speaking we are better equipped to deal with it). EPF has the database and will be able to verify when a person has found new employment. In any system there will be bad hats trying to find loopholes - heavy penalties should be meted out to discourage bad behaviour by employers and employees.

During good times, the Fund will be able to accumulate surpluses, thus covering the outflows during bad times. It is not meant to be a crutch but part of a developing structure for a developing nation, that seeks to minimise social costs, where we can grow and shoulder the good and bad together. Any major shortfall will be borne by the government, which won't be necessary if the calculations are made properly. Its not a crutch really because its NOT borne by the taxpayers but by the contributors to the insurance scheme. That 8 months of pay will be very important as many are shouldering mortgages that needs to be serviced - its not like, no job then can go back to kampung and stay with parents or live off the land. Let's be realistic.

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