Equities' New Bull Run Started

The equity markets had a double boost last week thanks to Federal Reserve's QE3 (quantitative easing part 3). The Fed will start by buying $45bn worth of long term Treasury bonds and up to $40bn worth or mortgage backed securities each month till labour markets improve. The smarter move by the Fed this time is that its a continuous monthly action, and will continue basically till labour markets improve, i.e. drop in unemployment. These actions will go a long way to restarting a new uptrend for global equities. The combined $85bn buying will keep interest rates low for sometime still thus forcing more funds to seek out higher returns, e.g. moving into equities.

An equally important development was the weakening of the yen, which looked like the start of a sustained weakness in the yen. This has started a rush for Japanese exporters by investors. Following the QE3, it appears investors see no more need to hold the yen as a safety haven. That being the case, the Japanese economy badly needs the yen to weaken even more. Hence its a timely boost for Japanese equities as well.


The ringgit opened firmer against the greenback in early trade today following improved sentiment for risk appetite across the region, dealers said. At 9.23 am, the ringgit was quoted at 3.0500/0520 compared with yesterday's close of 3.0520/0540. The increased risk appetite was boosted by the US Federal Reserve, which in turn will benefit globally as the move will see more money being pumped into the world's largest economy. After a two-day meeting which ended yesterday, the central bank announced new stimulus, which, among others, will see interest rate decisions tied to unemployment rate and inflation. It would also keep short-term interest rates close to zero until the unemployment rate, currently at 7.7 per cent, dips to 6.5 per cent. 

Previously, the US Federal Reserve had said that interest rates would hover near zero until at least mid-2015. Besides, the central bank decided to introduce a replacement for Operation Twist, the expiring programme introduced last year of swapping short-term Treasuries for longer-dated ones. Previously, the goal of Operation Twist was to lower long-term interest rates to stimulate the US economy. This new asset purchase programme has been dubbed as quantitative easing four (QE4). With QE3 and QE4 together, the central bank will likely purchase US$85 billion a month of Treasury securities, stacking the Fed's portfolio with government-backed investments for an extended period. 
 
On the local front, the ringgit was mostly higher against other major currencies. The local currency rose against the Singapore dollar to 2.4980/5012 compared to 2.4984/5010 yesterday and appreciated against the Japanese yen to 3.6571/6612 compared to 3.6810/6856 Wednesday. It gained against the British pound to 4.9190/9229 compared to 4.9214/9256 on Wednesday but declined against the euro to 3.9839/9874 from 3.9713/9749 previously.

 The Starbiz had the headline as "higher risk appetite for ringgit", well, not really, its the start of a huge inflow of foreign funds. Thanks to the above factors, a lot of fresh funds have jumped into mainly indexed local stocks over the last few days. Many indexed stocks have just surged past their 52 weeks high or close to it: UMW, SK Petro, and most of the banks. The buying has been ferocious in local telco stocks. Generally the second liners and speculative stocks will take a backseat when the index stocks are surging. Once the indexed stocks have stabilised, you should see strong rotational plays in second and third liners.
 

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Nothing To Write Home About

Markets have been so mediocre that there has been nothing much to write home about. Investors and traders must have the mindset that its OK not to be buying or selling shares sometimes - we are not that brilliant that we MUST buy or sell shares all the time.

More than anything else, if your holding period is less than 6 months, the TREND IS YOUR BEST FRIEND, and in many instances, your only friend. If your holding period is less than 6 months, no amount of brilliant analysis or technical software will allow you to trump the market better, you need the TREND to be your friend. 

You will make more money by being silly and follow the trend when its bullish and pull out when it reverses. Trouble is too many know when to go in, but too many do not know when to go out especially when they are way in front. Making money from the market makes one think one is really smarter than they really are - and that is the truth time and time again.

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Chinese Companies Listed Overseas

Can we at least come to some conclusion about the state of Chinese companies that are listed overseas. We hear of scandal after scandal, from HK to Singapore to the States. Its almost shocking that none in Malaysia has imploded (yet), not that I am wishing any of them to fall out of grace.

 

This is not to say that Chinese companies listed in their own China exchanges are all fantastic. There have been plenty of shenanigans there as well, but not as prevalent as those which chose to list overseas. Its not likely that they were better managed, but rather to be caught in China for fraud, bribery, accounting misstatements, etc... poses very big penalties, big fines and sometimes "capital punishment". Maybe overseas laws are more humane and some think they can get away with murder.

Below are some of the bigger scandals (not including the Sino Forest thing): 

2011 - Hong Kong-listed Real Gold Mining Ltd , an Inner Mongolian company, halted trading in its shares on May 27 after a newspaper report said the miner had filed one set of accounts with the Hong Kong stock exchange and a much different one with China's central government. The stock has been suspended from trading since. 

2011 - Hong Kong's securities regulator was seeking to freeze the assets of the chief executive of China Forestry Holdings Co Ltd , which was being investigated for accounting irregularities, a court document showed in February. The Securities and Futures Commission has applied to the high court to freeze up to HK$398 million ($51 million) in assets belonging to Chief Executive Li Han Chun, according to a court statement obtained by Reuters. China Forestry shares have been suspended since Jan. 26 after auditors KPMG found possible irregularities during their audit for fiscal 2010, the company said in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange in late January. 

2010 - Chinese textile firm Hontex International Holdings Co Ltd was listed in December 2009 and just three months later, its shares were suspended after the SFC alleged that its IPO prospectus had "materially overstated" its financial position. The SFC has successfully managed to freeze assets equivalent to the sum Hontex raised in its IPO. Investors have yet to see their money returned, with a debate continuing in the courts about the methods the SFC is using to reclaim the money. 

2010 - Shenzhen-listed Yunnan Green Land Biological Technology Co Ltd and its management were reprimanded by the Shenzhen bourse for seriously overstating profit in 2010 and 2009, according to the Shenzhen stock exchange. 

2010 - Huang Guangyu, China's one-time richest man and the founder of retail chain GOME Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd , was found guilty in May of bribery, insider trading and illegal business dealings. He was sentenced to 14 years in jail. 

 

2006 - Chinese appliance maker Guangdong Kelon Electrical Holdings Co Ltd and a number of former executives were fined for fraudulent accounting and other improper behavior. The company said it was found to have inflated revenue by 1.2 billion yuan and its profit by 120.42 million yuan between 2002 and 2004. Former chairman Gu Chujun was sentenced to 10 years in prison for embezzlement and accounting fraud. 

2004 - Singapore-listed jet fuel trader China Aviation Oil (CAO) stunned markets with a $550 million trading loss when it took risky bets on oil derivatives, triggering Singapore's biggest corporate scandal since the collapse of Barings Bank in 1995. A Singapore court later sentenced the man at the centre of the scandal -- former CAO Chief Executive Chen Jiulin -- to more than four years in jail. 

2004 - Stephen Wong, chairman and an executive director of China's third-largest television maker, Hong Kong-listed Skyworth Digital Holdings Ltd (0751.HK), was charged by Hong Kong's anti-corruption watchdog with allegedly misappropriating more than $6 million in company funds. Wong was later sentenced to six years in jail for plundering company funds and share option fraud. 

2003 - Zhou Zhengyi, then China's 11th richest man controlling two Hong Kong-listed companies, was detained in 2003 after an investigation into 2 billion yuan in loans obtained from the country's primary forex lender, Bank of China Ltd . Insiders said senior Shanghai government officials, including the city's then-Communist Party boss Chen Liangyu, had been instrumental in helping Zhou win approval for crucial city projects that were later implicated in the scandal. In 2008, a Shanghai court upheld a 16-year jail sentence handed down to Zhou. He was found guilty of five charges including misappropriation of funds, bribery and forging VAT receipts. The scandal had weighed on China's financial markets and sparked a rash of arrests as probes into Zhou's links with the Shanghai government and his lenders widened. Chen Liangyu was sentenced to 18 years in jail in 2008 for taking bribes and abuse of power. 

2003 - Chinese orchid tycoon Yang Bin was sentenced to an 18-year jail term for commercial crimes, including contract fraud, forging financial instruments, bribery and illegally occupying and using farmland. Yang was once ranked as China's second-richest man with an estimated fortune of $900 million. His company Euro-Asia Agricultural (Holdings) Co Ltd was delisted from the Hong Kong stock exchange in 2004. 

 

Some interesting statistics, can they lie?: 

a) more than 20 China companies listed in Singapore since 2008 have been delisted or suspended, out of 150 odd China companies listed there 

b) Nasdaq and NYSE Euronext halted trading in the shares of at least 21 small- and micro-cap Chinese companies in the past year. Five such companies were altogether kicked off of the exchanges.That was after 150 companies listed there since 2007 till 2011. So the odds were very close to the Singapore experience. 

c) Since 2010, some 110 China companies have gone public in HKSE, their current prices is 15.8% off their IPO price as of end April 2012. Non- China companies listed in HKSE since 2010 have gained 6.5% over the same period. Statistically, that is "highly significant". 

d) Since 2010 some 53 China companies have listed in the US. As of end of April 2012, they are on average down 38% from their IPO price, compared to a 9.9% gain for other IPOs. 

 

 I believe a lot more "action" will be found in the States, where more than 150 China companies have listed there because short selling is allowed, and there are plenty of research firms and hedge funds whose bread and butter is to locate these "inflated" companies, short the hell out of them, expose them, and reap the benefits.  

 Some of the scandals in Singapore red chips: 

1) China Gaoxian Fibre Fabric Holdings Ltd. The Zhejiang-based maker of polyester yarn said on June 30 2011 that its auditors at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP discovered the company’s bank balance should be less than a tenth of the 1.1 billion yuan ($170 million) it reported in its earnings. 

2) In the case of FerroChina Ltd., shareholders lost their entire investment when the steelmaker was forced to delist in March 2010 after being suspended for more than a year. The company, which hired Merrill Lynch & Co. in April 2008 as an adviser to help it be “the world’s largest and most efficient independent galvanized steel manufacturer,” defaulted on loans in October of that year, weeks after reporting quarterly net income had tripled. 

3) Other stocks that have been suspended include Sino Techfibre Ltd., which said a fire destroyed its financial records after reporting accounting flaws, and China Sun Bio-Chem Technology Group Co., which said a truck transporting its accounting records was stolen. 

4) Fibrechem Technologies. This was one of the best-followed S-chips. The first sign of trouble surfaced when the China-based chemical fibre-maker requested a trading halt on Feb 23 this year 2009. That was the day it failed to release, as scheduled, its fourth-quarter and full-year results. To the dismay of shareholders, the firm's auditors indicated they had difficulty finalising the audit on its trade receivables and cash balances as of the end of December last year. Before the trading halt was imposed, the counter plunged seven cents, or 40 per cent, to 10.5 cents, with 9.68 million shares traded.Meanwhile, founder and chief executive James Zhang resigned from his position as executive chairman. 

 

5) Beauty China. Since March 2 (2009), cosmetics firm Beauty China has requested three trading halts. The problem centres on founder and chairman Wong Hon Wai who had, unknown to shareholders, pledged all his stock - 137.5 million shares, or 38.57 per cent of the share capital - to obtain credit facilities. Many agree that the financial arrangement he made with his shares is material information investors should have been told about via stock exchange announcements. The shares plunged a stunning 26 cents, or 70.3 per cent, to 11 cents, with about 6.3 million shares traded, when the first trading halt was lifted on March 3. It soon emerged that his stake was being force-sold by the lender on the open market to help repay the loan. In order to fulfil his obligations to the financier, Mr Wong was forced to sell 28.8 million of the mortgaged shares between March 4 and March 6, noted DBS Vickers. 

6) Sino-Environment. The waste treatment firm's woes started on March 2 2009 when it requested a trading halt after its full-year results. It must have seemed like a recurring nightmare to some investors, given the similarity to Beauty China's problems. Sino-Environment chairman Sun Jiangrong had pledged his entire 56.3 per cent stake or 190.8 million shares, along with other assets, to hedge funds to secure a $120 million loan. As he had difficulties repaying the loan, the forced sale of the pledged shares was triggered. The hedge funds had threatened to sell the shares on the open market. That would cause the control of the company to change hands. It also might plunge the company into a financial crisis, as it would have had to make immediate repayment on a $149 million bond issue - triggered by the change of ownership. Trading was suspended from March 6 and resumed on March 12. After the week-long trading suspension, Sino-Environment plunged 73 per cent to eight cents on a hefty volume of 47.4 million shares. The counter closed at 13.5 cent. 

7) Oriental Century. On March 9 2009, education firm Oriental Century - in which local group Raffles Education had invested $30.2 million for a 29.9 per cent stake - called for a trading halt. It later shocked investors by disclosing that founder and chief executive Wang Yuean had said he 'inflated sales and cash balances' over the years and had diverted unspecified sums to an interested party. He also claimed that he devised fictitious accounting to mislead management and auditors into believing the firm had a cash hoard of 234 million yuan. 

 

Trust The Auditors

Trust the auditors? They don't even trust themselves. A small sampling of recent shame for some top auditors is below. The scams perpetrated and slipped past auditors run the gamut from the mundane, such as improper recognition of revenue, to the incredible, such as hiding massive amounts of off-balance-sheet liabilities or falsifying billions of dollars of cash. Surely, we can trust the auditors what, they are big names. Well, lets look at the big auditors responsible for some big mess: 

Arthur Andersen (now defunct): Enron, WorldCom, Nicor, Global Crossing

Ernst & Young: Lehman Brothers, Anglo Irish Bank, HealthSouth

KPMG: Allied Capital, Peregrine Systems, ImClone, Xerox

Deloitte: Nortel, Royal Ahold, Reliant Energy

PwC: Satyam Computer Services, AIG, Tyco

Grant Thorton: Parmalat

Not All Are Rascals

If there are even 20% bad hats, there are still 80% decent companies, assuming all not found to be in breach are really genuine good operators. So, what should they do now that their shares trade at 1x, 2x, 3x PER?

1) Raise dividends to 50% of profits, and make that a company policy. Many will come out with 101 reasons not to do this, you may want to really ask why. Is a company's share price more important than any other issues?

2) Privatise and relist in HK. In 2007, Want Want Holdings, a food and beverage group which makes the popular rice crackers, delisted from the SGX and relisted in Hong Kong in search of better valuations. It is now trading with a PE of over 20x times there, compared with 10 to 15 times in Singapore. So, XDL may have a strong case for moving with this strategy.

If you have invested in a China company listed in Singapore or Malaysia, there is very little you can do after you have asked them to raise dividend. You then have to play the waiting game. I think there are bigger and better fishes to fry while you lock up your capital on something that may take a long time, or worse, turns out to be one of 20% which fell foul of the law later on.

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The Lowdown On China-Stocks On Bursa - Just A View

You open a conversation topic on Chinese stocks listed on Bursa, you see most people shaking their heads. Most have been burned, and burned royally despite following Benjamin Graham's rules of investing. Well, you have low PER relative to profit growth, most are still registering decent earnings growth. But none are willing to pay out a decent dividend despite having a substantive amount of cash. In fact, what has been more galling was they even had the audacity to push through rights issue.



They drop and drop, even though syndicates have been roped in, they still drop. For the past 3 years or so, the news surrounding China companies listed overseas have been appalling. There have been numerous scams and accounting fraud with China companies using RTO to get listed in the US. The seemingly "clean" SGX has not been spared, last count there were 6 China firms listed there that have gone "bust literally" or have tons of  shenanigans like in an Irish fairy tale. 


Are those listed on Bursa a ticking time bomb?
Well, I don't know really, but so far so good despite the weak share prices for these companies. If you go by percentage of troubled overseas China listed firms, at least 1 out 5 would have collapsed by now. Why SGX had so much problems with China firms and not Bursa? Well, SGX, being a play by the rules entity, relied totally on the sponsors/IBs to bring forth these issues. If the companies can be faulted later on for accounting fraud or related misdemeanours, then SGX will throw the book on the sponsors/IBs and directors. I think Bursa/SC have traveled the extra mile in ensuring these China firms are genuine, most if not all have been "site-visited" by them. The reliance on sponsors/IBs have not been as great for Malaysia as in the US or Singapore. Notch one for Bursa/SC. (I hope no China stock will get busted right after I wrote this, but knowing Murphy's Law, that is probably what will happen).



Excuses and Reasons, and Orcam's Razor
You can dig and dig at the management for reasons for their underperforming shares. There have been excuses after excuses. One, you can say that the sponsors or parties (VC/PE firms) bringing the stock to Bursa have used the route to sell their shares to realise their gains. Two, they needed to keep cash as the bulk of their transactions are with small vendors and suppliers that want to deal in cash. Three, they do not wish to pay out good dividends as they want to reinvest for future growth. Four, they seem to have no desire to buyback their own shares at 2-3x PER??!!


When share price keeps falling and the reasons and postulations given are numerous, according to Orcam's Razor, in such situations, the simplest explanation is probably the truth. The simple explanation is that maybe the figures are a sham. Now, I used to hold that view till my recent new findings, so hold your horses.



The Real Owners?
This is probably just an opinion but I have heard enough to surmise that the registered owners are, more than likely, not the real beneficial owners of these China shares. The Bursa and SC can go and try to find out more. Don't shoot me, I am just the messenger. 


For a China company to list overseas, they need this "paper license" called the "wufi", usually from their municipality or state. I am sure you can see where this is headed. Sponsors are usually some smart people piecing a few companies together to get the "wufi". In most cases the ones with the designation of CEO or even Chairman owns very little of the company. The bulk are supposedly held by the "state chiefs and their underlings". We in Malaysia can easily understand why this works, don't we. To the "chieftains", this is an easy way to regulate for paper profits and also transfer some wealth overseas. 


That is why you do not see these companies getting huge bank loans, and they want to keep cash at all levels. Maybe its easier to loot the company of money by expanding and taking on new projects as we all know we can always skim the 20%-30% from any projects undertaken. Maybe.


However, I am not saying all these companies are sinister. At the end of the day, more than likely, the management's hands are tied. There is probably very little they can do (without the "approval from real owners"). This is also something we Malaysians are very familiar with, yes "Proxy"!!!



XDL
Now finally a company goes ahead and does something. Their bonus and warrants issue is a move in the right direction. Some have frowned on the private placement, but why should you frown, they are not placing to you. In fact, having a private placement could be the very trigger that some parties have managed to engage the "real owners" and go through a proper "value creation" exercise, hence they themselves would have secured the parties for the private placement.


Significance
I cannot say this with greater effect. If the hypotheses are true, which means at least most or all of the companies on Bursa are not fraudulent, and to get XDL going through this phase of value creation, which I think will be wildly successful. This could be the catalyst that is needed for the rest of the China companies listed on Bursa to do likewise. As things stand, none of the China firms on Bursa are "fraudulent yet", maybe none are. If enough of them go through the value creation steps led by XDL, it could very well lift Bursa as the "best exchange to list China firms". If this is all true and good, then Bursa and SC must continue to make doubly sure that future China listing go through even more stringent listing checks and balances. So far so good, even with depressed share prices, at least we do not have a total bust up (yet). 


If all parties play their cards right, the right playing field will attract the right crowd. This is a chance to take the next step forward for all parties involved.

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Pavilion REIT Off To A Brilliant Start

Pavilion REIT has got off to a superb start as 6 of the cornerstone investors have subscribed to 33.5% of the offering. Well, maybe now the owner can put some of the funds to revitalising the very cheaply valued Malton. Call it timely or what, Malton was buying 56.05 acres of land in Ulu Kelang for a residential project with an estimated gross development value of RM500 million.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd on Monday, Nov 14, Malton said that its wholly owned subsidiary Gapadu Harta Sdn Bhd had entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Ukay Spring Development Sdn Bhd to acquire the land for RM105 million.

Finance Asia: Malaysia’s Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust has secured six cornerstone investors ahead of its initial public offering, which started marketing to institutional investors on Friday. The cornerstones, which include domestic pension funds and insurance companies as well as pan-Asian insurer AIA, will buy 33.5% of the offering, according to the term sheet.

Pavilion Reit aims to raise between M$695 million and M$710 million ($223 million to $228 million). If successful, it will be the fourth-biggest listing in Malaysia this year after Bumi Armada, UOA Development and MSM Malaysia Holdings, according to Bloomberg data. Ananda Krishnan-backed Bumi Armada raised $2.66 billion ($888 million) in a popular IPO in July.

Reits typically enjoy stable revenues and pay high dividends, which makes them appealing to investors looking for defensive investments that offer some protection against the recent market volatility. Pavilion Reit is offering units in the trust at a price between M$0.88 and M$0.90 each, which translates into a 2012 dividend yield of between 6.6% and 6.8%. This compares favourably with domestic competitors Sunway Reit and CapitaMalls Malaysia, which trade at 2012 yields of 6.2% and 6.1% respectively, according to a source.

But retail property-focused Pavilion may also face some competition from HKT Trust, which kicked off a Hong Kong IPO on Wednesday last week and is offering a 2012 dividend yield ranging from 7.6% to 9%. For yield-focused investors who aren’t necessarily looking for exposure to either Malaysia or properties, this could prove an attractive alternative. HKT Trust is a spin-off from incumbent Hong Kong telecom operator PCCW and comprises all of its fixed-line, mobile and broadband telecommunications businesses. It is aiming to raise up to $1.4 billion by selling 32% of its share capital.

However, Pavilion emphasised in its draft prospectus that it also offers growth opportunities, both through potential acquisitions and through increases of rents and leasable areas at its existing properties. This could give it a leg up on HKT Trust, which faces a weak growth outlook according to analysts. With a debt-to-asset ratio of just 20.1% at the time of listing, Pavilion Reit can borrow almost M$1.1 billion to fund future acquisitions before running into the regulatory limit of 50%.

Meanwhile, the Malaysian stock market has been faring better than many of its Asian peers, which may make international funds a bit more comfortable to invest. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index was almost unchanged on Friday and is down 0.4% so far this year. That compares with a 15% decline in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index this year, while Singapore’s FTSE Straits Times Index has shed almost 10% during the same period.

Pavilion Reit, which is backed by Malaysian businessman Lim Siew Choon and his wife Tan Kewi Yong, as well as the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), is offering 790 million new units, or 26.3% of the trust. Of the total, 95.6% will go to domestic and international institutional investors. The deal is not open to onshore US investors.

Out of the institutional tranche, 265 million shares have been reserved for the cornerstone investors. Aside from AIA’s Malaysian unit, they also include Employees Provident Fund Board, Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia), HwangDBS Investment Management, Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) and Permodalan Nasional, which are all high-quality domestic names. The cornerstones will invest about $75 million at the mid-point of the price range and will be subject to a one-month lock-up only.

Following the IPO, Lim and Tan will jointly own 37.6% of the Reit, while QIA subsidiary Qatar Holding will own 36.1%. The three parties will be locked up for six months. At the time of listing, Pavilion Reit will own a seven-storey shopping mall and a 20-storey office tower. They are both part of a mixed-use commercial development, the Pavilion Kuala Lumpur project, which is located in KL’s Golden Triangle commercial district. The award-winning shopping mall is by far the most valuable of the two, accounting for about 96% of the total asset value.

The properties were completed in 2007 and will be bought by the Reit at M$3.31 billion, which represents a 6.47% discount to the appraised value. Based on the property valuation at the end of June, Pavilion will be the second largest Reit in Malaysia after Sunway Reit, and the largest in terms of pure retail exposure, according to its draft prospectus. Aside from its two existing properties, Pavilion also has a right of first refusal to a number of retail properties in Malaysia, which are expected to drive its future growth.

CIMB, Credit Suisse, Maybank and QNB Capital are joint global coordinators for the offering. The first three are also joint bookrunners together with Deutsche Bank. The institutional offering launched on Friday remains open until November 22 when the final price is set to be fixed. The trading debut is scheduled for December 7.

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Corporate Governance, What Corporate Governance?

Out of the blue, we have a slew of corporate deals that have questionable aspects. A site which I have linked for over 2 months have done a very credible job in highlighting some. Bookmark it, the blogger is good. All that crap about corporate governance, the speeches at CG seminars, the meeting of suits at SC sponsored CG initiatives, ... and we get these thrown blatantly at us. ... And its not just companies we are talking about, the supposedly government funds, supposedly looking after our funds without fear or favour, I wonder what are they doing ... why we do not see more of them saying something, voting against certain dubious proposals ... do you guys have any teeth or you are just so glad to be promoted to these positions and somehow are then beholden to someone or some powers?


How you expect Malaysians not to be angry??!!

http://www.cgmalaysia.blogspot.com/

TUESDAY, 6 SEPTEMBER 2011

MUIB and PMCorp: a horrible deal from the past

"Ze Moola" attended me on a old corporate exercise from the MUIB stable. The "independent" report can be found here:

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/subweb.nsf/7f04516f8098680348256c6f0017a6bf/afd99bbf47849e5848256f2b001970f4/$FILE/PMCorp-Circular.pdf

In short, Malayan United Industries Bhd. (MUIB) had borrowed RM 1,067,000,000 from related party Pan Malaysia Corporation (PMCorp), if would not or could not pay the amount back, a horrible and highly unsatisfactory situation for PMCorp shareholders.

The only thing MUIB could do is hive of some assets to PMCorp, but it decided to give the PMCorp shareholders shares in MUIB. Problem was that MUIB's shares were trading at only RM 0.185, that would mean that PMCorp were entitled to about 6 billion MUIB shares. Aparantly that was not what the Majority Shareholders of MUIB had in mind, therefore an ingenious scheme was designed. A pretty complicated one so that most Minority Investors would not be able to see through it. Instead of shares it would give ICULS, Irredeemable Convertible Unsecured Loan Stocks. These are Irredeemable, in other words they can not be redeemed for cash, you can (or will, there is no choice) somewhere in the future convert them 1:1 for MUI shares. They don't pay dividend like shares but interest, but even this would be paid in even more ICULS. This looks already bad for PMCorp shareholders, instead of cold hard cash they would get shares in a company that had been making huge losses over the last years. But what is simply amazing is the small number of ICULS they would receive, instead of the about 6 billion one would expect (RM 1,067 million divided by RM 0.185 = 5.8 Billion), they received less that 1.3 Billion ICULS. Minority Shareholders of PMCorp were thus hugely short changed, for more than RM 800 million.

The "independent" report from Hwang-DBS Securities Bhd. was of extremely low quality, I won't bother writing what was wrong with it (about everything), will just give their conclusion:

Let's check their arguments:

(i) The par value of MUIB shares: the par value has nothing to do with valuation. The fact that the NAV of a MUIB shares is way below the par value means it has accumulated huge losses, which is an indication of a badly managed company. By even suggesting the par value HWANG-DBS is simply deceiving Minority Investors.

(ii) The ICULS can only be converted to shares in the future: that is a disadvantage, not an advantage.

(iii) The future prospects of the MUIB group: the report was dated 12 Oct 2004, MUIB was thoroughly mismanaged, had lost Billions of RM, why would that suddenly improve? The results since then:

2004: RM -405 million
2005: RM -371 million
2006: RM -210 million
2007: RM +10 million
2008: RM -74 million
2009: RM +3 million
2010: RM +36 million

In total: losses of more than RM 1 Billion.

And what happened with the proposal and the circular? It was (as usual) approved by the authorities (Bursa Malaysia and/or Securities Commission), and neither the directors of PMCorp, MUIB or the "independent" advisor Hwang/DBS were ever punished in any way, shape or form.

Needless to say, the quality of the "independent" advice circulars in Malaysia has further gone down, 99% of them shamelessly support the Majority Shareholders, no matter how bad the deal is for the Minority Shareholders: "Whose bread I eat, his song I sing". And up to this very day, the authorities have not bothered to come down on the advisers.

Recommendation: Do away with the "independent" advice, it is hurting Minority Shareholder, not helping them.

MUIIND is currently trading at RM 0.21, the MUI ICULS are all trading at RM 0.17, PMCORP is at RM 0.09, PMIND at for RM 0.045 and PMCAP at for 0.085.

The renumeration for MUIB's Chairman and Chief Executive, Tan Sri Dato' Khoo Kay Peng, is more than RM 3.2 million a year.

THURSDAY, 8 SEPTEMBER 2011

MMC, RPT's and its Major Shareholder

Ze Moola looking back at one of the largest (and in my opinion worst) Related Party Transactions, MMC taking over Senai Airport in the depth of the worst global recession of the last 50 years for RM 1,700,000,000 cold hard cash:

http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2011/09/look-back-again-on-mmc-purchase-of.html

"the MMC chairman had invoked his discretion to have a poll instead of a vote by hands and, in the end, 97 per cent voted in favour of the deal."

Let me guess who voted in favour:

MSWG did fight this case, they tried their best. What do we read at the MSWG's website?

http://www.mswg.org.my/project/mswg/media/2009/03/02/165112-629.pdf

We are talking about an acquisition for RM 1,700,000,000 and they have "some other work commitment".

Funds like EPF, PNB, ValueCap, etc, etc, etc, I have hardly ever seen them oppose a bad corporate exercise. They had the power, they had the votes to block these horrible RPT's, but almost always they did chose to toe the line. My impression is that they were pressured to do so, or they perceived they were pressured. By doing so, they have done an unbelievable disservice, to their own accountholders, to the other Minority Investors and to Malaysia in general. They had the chance, they could have been vocal, they could have rallied the Minority Investors, they chose not to do so, they chose to toe the line, again and again and again.

My recommendation: they should simply not vote anymore, let the small shareholders vote plus the normal unit trust fund managers (the first put their money where their mouth is, the latter want to have a good long term track record). I am sure that this deal would then not have gone through. 

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Why I Am Still In Malaysia

The Malaysian Insider is running a series of articles submitted by various Malaysians on the brain drain issue and emigration. I guess its only fair for me to put in my dua sen.




Did I have the opportunity to leave? That would be the first line of questioning. Yes, in fact most of my relatives are already residing in Sydney. I was working part time as a taxi driver in Sydney during my second and third year at University of NSW, which is to say I barely made it to classes especially in my third year. Thankfully, third year was the easiest, lots of essays.

I had to stay on after my degree after hearing my friends were getting RM400 a month as an accontant at Peat Marwick in KL. Gawd, it was just after the Pan-el crisis (readers younger than 40 please Google that before proceeding). Surely I was not going to go back and slog as an accountant with my Acctg Finance degree for RM400. Not when I was puling in A$90 for 9 hours as a taxi driver, tax free. (OK, its 20 years ago).

I had to enrol for my honours year just to stay on. I thought, fine, as the honours year could count as the first year for my Masters of Commerce as well. I would have to pay A$6,500 but I reckon I could make it back easily. So, no more cab driving, got myself an Asst. Accountant job at a NGO, Freedom From Hunger, hey they paid A$24,000 a year, even though the premises looked like a replica of the Sarawak longhouse (don't ask).



That stint as an accountant did wonders for me, it made me very sure that I would never ever want to be an accountant for the rest of my life. That lasted 4 months and I jumped at a Trainee Sales position at Nomura Securities Australia, gawd, I even had to take a pay cut to A$21,000. I was a natural salesperson, b.s. my way selling Japanese stocks, CBs, warrants and within 6 months I had a company car (Mitsubishi Sigma) and a 100% jump in my salary to A$42,000, and I wasn't even 24.

After two years my salary was bumped to A$65,000 with the usual 4 months bonus. Then James Capel was looking at how great the Asian markets were and was looking for someone to start a desk. At 26, I moved to James Capel as Head of Asian Markets. I asked for A$120,000 just for the fun of it, but they said yes OK. Gulp...

Now, I could have stayed there and move around every 3 years and before I was 40 I'd probably be running the Investments side for Bankers Trust or Suncorp or AMP. But it wasn't so easy. I could see that the higher rungs were limited in prospects for non whites. The culture was still very old school. There was too much rugby, beer, cricket, rugby 7s, prostitutes, etc... and you had to work the system.

Chinese Name: Yang Ying 楊穎
Date of Birth: February 28, 1989
Place of Birth: Shanghai, China
Background: Her father is 1/4 German
Place of residence: Causeway Bay, Hong Kong
Height: 167 cm
Weight: 46 kg

If I didn't mind, I could have just stayed on and lived comfortably. But I made my way back to Malaysia because I thought if everyone felt the same way, no one would do anything for the country. I have a lot of Ipoh friends who studied in NUS and now making great careers in Singapore, not one out of the twenty or so friends came back. All of them have more more than S$400,000 in the CPF and almost paid off at least one condo (min. S$800,000), the richer ones have a few properties of course.

But I had to make a detour first to Singapore before coming back as there were still (then) zilch opportunities) for me back home. I stayed in Singapore for 3 years managing funds for a private European bank. Funny thing was, I really liked business and finance, and I really liked to write, so I applied twice to The Straits Times and Business Times Singapore. I was offered twice, once for S$7,200 p.m. and another time for S$7,800 p.m. to work there. Sigh... things would have been very different if I took that up. I did a couple of columns for Business Times instead..lol.

Did I make a difference by staying? I don't know. I wanted to find out for myself, career wise, how far I could go in my country. In my small ways, I hope to be part of the struggle to get Malaysia to a better place. Even though, I may not live to see it, even though (if) I had children, they may not even stay in Malaysia ... even so, I want to see Malaysia progress. If every one just shrug their shoulders and pack their bags, who is left to switch off the lights?

I came back because I wanted to read papers that talks about things I care about. I pick up the Sydney Morning Herald, I just head straight for the puzzles column and sports section. Food is the least of my worries, there's always good food everywhere you go. Family, heck, I could have brought my entire family over.

I do not see this as a sacrifice, just my chosen path. I do not begrudge anyone. I make my way around, I live well enough ... but please fellow Malaysians, make a difference, remember to vote, get your friends to vote, get your relatives to vote ... or else don't ever complain about the country.

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Hap Seng Consolidated

This will probably be the highest priced stock that I have featured... lol. Most investors will only look at Hap Seng Plantations as it is more focused, same goes for research houses. Many will consider Hap Seng Consolidated to be having a finger in too many pies. But seriously, they are in all the right industries.



Year to Sep 2010, the company has made RM275.8m net profit or 39 sen net EPS. Taking in the final quarter, the company should register a net profit of RM348m or a net EPS of 55 sen. NTA is at RM4.41 per share, not revalued.

Hap Seng Plantation's stake alone is worth RM1.3bn at market prices. Current market cap for Hap Seng Consolidated is RM3.97bn.

Issues shares: 622m (RM1.00)
Gek Poh Holdings 56.02%
Lei Shing Hong Investment 10.83%

Market Cap (RM mn) / PER(current) / PER(forward)
Berjaya Corp 4,210.6 / 26.9 / 27.8
Boustead 5,349.5 / 9.8 / 11.9
Sime 52,041.9 / 75.3 / 16.8
Hap Seng Consolidated 3,970 / 13 / 10.2

You can read all about the various business arms of Hap Seng Consolidated below, all performing creditably. Why I chose to highlight the stock now is critical. Actually I was given the tip when the stock was at RM5.50 but as I have said before, great value is not enough for me to post. Timing and catalyst have to be right. If not, its the same as buying into Boustead - although Hap Seng do run their businesses a lot better than Boustead. After checking through my network, there is conformation that we have catalyst and timing.

1) The company is supposedly mulling a 1 for 4 share split, i.e. from RM1.00 share to 25 sen share. Seriously, the Malaysian market loses a lot of investors participation once the share price scale past RM4.00, like it or not. Hence its a worthwhile and very likely proposition.

2) Hap Seng Consolidated has been riding up alongside Hap Seng Plantations owing to the run in CPO. However, if you look closely at the actual volume traded, its more than the usual upswing. This was the same pattern prior to DRB scaling past RM1.50, and we are seeing a repeat of that. Rarely do the volume go past even 1m shares traded even when its going up. On Friday it was 2.5m traded.

3) There is news that the company is going to do a double whammy, i.e. a special dividend together with share split. A figure of 20-30 sen was heard.

4) Its a value proposition as well, even at present levels. If you like Boustead, you should like Hap Seng Consolidated even more given the likelihood of favourable corporate exercises. RM8.00-8.50 is quite reachable as news of their corporate exercises gather momentum.



As mentioned before, many research houses abandoned covering the stock, I could only find one report, and quite well written too, see if you can locate it as well.

Quarry and Building Materials
Benefit from projects. The 2011 Budget announcement had largely focused on construction and development. Construction boom. Even without government support, private initiatives have been burgeoning with many property developments being sold and continued developments. Plans for towers of buildings in the Klang Valley had continued to surface constantly. With the ongoing and even more upcoming developments, demand for building materials could potentially accelerate. Hap Seng Trading was appointed by Malaysian Mosaics Bhd on 30 June 2009 as its sole and exclusive distributor of MML tiles in Malaysia. Recently there was a privatization of MML which indicates value in the company. This hints positively to the segment.

Plantation
Owns 52.53% of Hap Seng Plantations. Hap Seng Plantations is predominantly an oil palm planter in Sabah. It is an efficient planter with large economies of scale. Earnings rerating. CPO prices has increased rapidly over the half a year. With the large increase, earnings of planters are expected to increase substantially. Stock price increase in the industry has currently lagged the potential increase in net profits. Moreover, the USD has been strengthening against the ringgit, giving strength and competitiveness to the CPO against other oils especially soybean oil.Hap Seng is synergistically tied to its fertilizer division as well. High Efficiency. HSP is one of the most efficient planters in the industry with FFB yields of 21.5 metric tons per hectare and an OER of 21.6%. Moreover, HSP has a contiguous plantation which offers far more efficiency and scale than planters with plots of land in various locations. The group has a FFB yield of close to 700,000 metric tonnes per year. The group also operates 4 mills.

Plantation land
The total area of Hap Seng Plantations estates is 39,803 hectares. Hap Seng Plantations operates on one contiguous block of plantation land of approximately 36,354 hectares between Lahad Datu and Sandakan region, in addition to two smaller plantations of 1,276 hectares in Tawau and 2,173 hectares in Kota Marudu. 34,467 hectares of planted area comprises 32,576 hectares of matured oil palm and 1,891 hectares of immature plantings.

Agrobusiness-Fertilizer
Malaysia and Indonesia. Hap Seng’s fertilizer business is primarily in Malaysia and
Indonesia. We do see some growth in the sector with higher CPO prices and as Indonesia’s plantation acreage increases and matures. Currently a very large amount of plantation land is maturing and coming onstream annually. The fertilizer business is complementary and synergistic to Hap Seng’s plantation segment. This is especially the case with rising CPO prices whereby demand of fertilizer normally increases.

Property development
Hap Seng’s property focus has been primarily on low-rise residential properties in major urban centres. Hap Seng’s key development area has been in Sabah. Hap Seng has developments in Tawau, Sandakan, Kota Kinabalu in Lahad Duta. Hap Seng has developments in all 3 key segments including residential, industrial and commercial. Branching out into Klang Valley. Hap Seng has ventured into the Klang Valley in recent years through D’Alpinia located in Puchong. It is located in the fringes of Puchong close to Seri Kembangan and Putrajaya. It is a relatively large development of 76 acres of land and is of a build and sell concept. The units are of modern contemporary design. Phase 1 was launched in late 2009.



Automotive
Hap Seng is involved in automotive through Hap Seng Auto Sdn Bhd,Hap Seng Industrial Sdn Bhd and Hap Seng Star Sdn Bhd. Hap Seng Auto is involved in the distribution of Mercedes-Benz logging trucks, general-purpose trucks, buses, passenger vehicles and spare parts in Sabah and Sarawak. Hap Seng Auto Sdn Bhd is also the sole distributor for Mitsubishi Fuso commercial vehicles in East Malaysia. Hap Seng Industrial Sdn Bhd fabricates and assembles logging truck trailers, tankers and other industrial transport vehicles. Hap Seng Star Sdn Bhd is an authorized dealer of Mercedes-Benz and Smart vehicles in the Klang Valley. In April 2010, Hap Seng Star Sdn Bhd took over Hap Seng Auto Sdn Bhd’s role as the sole authorized dealer of Mercedes-Benz and Mitsubishi Fuso in East Malaysia.

Group synergy
Hap Seng’s property arm plays a synergistic role with the group. Hap Seng’s property arm benefits directly from its quarry & building materials arm and provides the latter with ongoing orders. Hap Seng’s property arm could benefit from lead time, consistency in demand and product quality. Hap Seng’s property arm could also benefit indirectly from their Credit Financing arm as it also serves construction and property related businesses.

Property Holdings
The group’s flagship Menara Hap Seng has seen a high occupancy rate of 94% for its tower block and 88% for its podium. The division continues to contribute substantially to the division, providing it strong cash flows and relatively stable earnings. Hap Seng has a 1.1 acre freehold land adjacent to the building and the 31,000 sq ft 1 ½ storey Hap Seng Star Mercedes-Benz showroom. The showroom has very premium frontage of Jalan P Ramlee and Jalan Sultan Ismail in the Central Business District of Kuala Lumpur. The area has the potential to be redeveloped into a very premium and high visibility commercial block.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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