Market Down .... Look For Reasons

The classical reaction by pundits and so called experts... market move up or down, they need to find a reason for it. When you attach reasons to market movements - we have to bear in mind if its justified, yes there can be a lot of market moving macro factors such as liquidity, currency or interest rate outlook, somebody important said something, etc... but by and large most market relevant information are being factored into prices continually.

The Sarawak election ceramahs over the weekend got people hopping and yelping that thats why the market moved down. Ya lor, 1,000 odd attended BN's events while more than 10,000 attended the opposition's rallies. Errr ... what did you expect? I said many times over the past few weeks that Sarawak elections is going to turn heads. I am surprised that people who can read market trends cannot read the people's sentiment.

I already planned weeks back to be completely zero on stocks by this Thursday. Its a reality, politics tie itself with the stock markets closely. Its not a matter of whether you choose to believe, its a reality. It has to do with certainty or uncertainty. I am sure my readers know where I stand politically, no need to guess. Even if my portfolio get whacked a bit because of certain outcome, I will be a happier person.

Do not equate your losses or gains with what happens in the political arena. The former is a far greater cause and quest, markets will always be there. Hence while the Sarawak wave is underway, we also have the Invest Malaysia day thing. Having said all that, its not exactly a fine time to be overly long on local stocks. What would you be giving up by not investing for 2 weeks?

Having said all that, the market corrected today because of exhaustion more than anything else. The oil and gas counters looked tired, even MAA looked plump and immobolised - what that meant is that when certain people try to push some stocks, nobody is willing to follow, thats market exhaustion, either all were too long or long enough in the market already. If its not going up, all you have are sellers reducing their position.

Alex Lu commented in his blog: "Our market has entered into a correction, with FBM-KLCI pulling back towards the 10-day SMA line at 1546. If this line is violated, the next support would be the 20-day SMA line at 1535. This is the most severe correction since the market recovered from its 3 months' consolidation (from January to March). In that recovery, the FBM-KLCI rallied from a low of 1476 on March 15 to hit a high of 1565 on April 4. If the current correction leads to a retracement of 38% of the recent gain of 89 points, then the FBM-KLCI may decline to 1531. That's quite close to the 20-day SMA line. I think the 1530-1535 level would be the likely downside limit for the current correction."

Anyway, Sarawakians to the fore, the last elections the East Malaysians said to West Malaysians "hey, you didn't tell us you were going to do that!!!", now they know and the Sarawakians will lead the rest this time around. Over this weekend, things are going to go viral ... If any of you disagree with my political position, you can go fuck yourself (pardon my language but I cannot think of a better phrase, who in their right fucking mind would think otherwise??!!).

Of course, some of my readers will say, hey don't put yourself out there like that lah .... dangerous you know. Sometimes when you live, you need to stand for something, or else why bother living at all.









p/s now, this posting is important enough for me not to put girl photos up...

Posted in: Sarawak politics